The category that you fall in depends, to some extent, on your political viewpoint, whether you are Labor, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform etc.
The focus here is to look at how we have got to the present state of affairs. Now buckle your seat belt, this is quite a ride.
So here we go. My starting point was Sir Keir Starmer's appearance on BBC's 6 O'clock news on June 24th. Proclaiming that by overhauling the welfares system, he would be able to save £5bn by 2030. The current welfare system is unsustainable. Owing to the growing number of individuals receiving benefits, there is an increased need to generate additional revenue. As stated, "the welfare system was unsustainable." The benefits involved are the Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and Universal Credit. PIP is paid to people with long term sickness/disabilities)By the smile on his face, it looked as if it was a done deal. No turning back it seemed.
However, when the details came to light, it did not go so well. Why, and what happened? Well… 120 of Keir Starmer’s own MPs had signed a motion that would literally rewrite the bill. Arguing that if passed in its present state it would push a large number of people into poverty. (The figure given according to the BBC’s web page was 250.000).That there had been a lack of consultation and that the ‘Impact assessment on the jobs market was inadequate.
These being vulnerable people, that figure was not easy to digest, more so those who had signed the motion. They remained unmovable in their determination to stop the bill from going through. Citing, the lack of consultation and an inadequate assessment of the jobs market.
For Keir Starmer, if he decided to continue with the bill as it stood, is that it could end with it being defeated in the commons. Which, if it happened, would present a serious threat to his authority. There was even talk of his losing his premiership, he was under a lot of pressure. The vote, due to take place on the 1st of this month, was only a few days away. Yet, Keir Starmer insisted he would press on with the reforms as they stood.
Fasten your seat belts, as here comes the first U turn, despite insisting that the bill would go ahead in it’s original form, he announced on the 30th of June the following changes: First, that the health-related aspect of Universal Credit will no longer be frozen and will be linked to the rate of inflation,( but, it would only apply to those who already claim Universal Credit). For PIP, a review of the assessment process, which would have input from disability organizations and overseen by a body of Ministers. £1.6 bn to be put aside to help people back into work before the original 2030 target.
Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative party states, “He would have to prove the proposals would both, reduce the welfare budget and get more people into work without raising taxes”. In order to get the Conservatives to cooperate with Labor with regards to Welfare Reform Bill. When Keir Starmer was asked about the conservatives said, “I don’t know what they will do, and, I don’t think they have a clue what they are doing”. So much for working together!!!
With more and more divisions on the Labor side; this is what the Telegraph said on the 30th of June 2025: Started by accusing Keir Starmer of trying to please the rebels and breaking the promises he had previously made, to humor them. Then quoted Sir Sadiq Khan as saying that the legislation requires “Radical transformation”. Liz Kendall, Labour MP, reportedly stated that if the current bill revisions proceed, they will cost £2.5 billion (Labour Secretary of State). However, the Shadow secretary has warned that it was the tax- payers that will be picking up this ever-growing bill.
Still with me? not to worry, there is another roller coaster just around the corner, as on the 1st of July 2025, just one day later ‘The Independent’ publishes a piece regarding the welfare bill. To briefly summarize its Headline states, “Rattled Starmer scrapes through on welfare reform after last minute concession to rebel MPs”. (David Maddox, Millie Cooke).
It goes onto say that the bill only scrapped through the commons because of the last-minute concessions. The Cost to Keir Starmer, being that his credibility had been somewhat dented.
What were the concessions? That PIP’s eligibility criteria would not change until after discussions have concluded. Originally, the changes to PIP were to occur in 2026 for new applicants.
‘The Telegraph’ wrote a piece called "Starmer’s Benefit Deal With Rebels Unravels”. On June 30th, 2025, at 6.00pm, give a timeline for the afternoon events. Starting at:
- 16pm. The governments watered down bill with the reforms will still push 150,000 people into poverty.
- 14pm Sir Sadiq Khan: “Legislation still needs radical transformation”.
- 04pm Welfare reform will cost £2.5bn, according to Liz Kendall.
- 06pm The taxpayer will pick up “an ever-growing bill”. According to the Shadow Secretary
- 42 An unnamed Labour MP is quoted as saying, “It feels like signing a blank cheque”.
On the 1st of July 2025 ‘The Independent’ wrote a piece under the heading, “Rattled Starmer Scrapes Through on Welfare Reform after last-minute concession to rebel MPs”.
In summary, the welfare reform was passed after last-minute concessions were made to address concerns and prevent opposition. In their view it represented a significant knock on Starmer’s leadership. And that Pip changes will happen until after the benefit changes, which is to be in 2030(Initially it was supposed to happen in 2026) for all new applicants.
I finish with a question. Has Keir Starmer’s leadership credentials been dented because he caved in under pressure? I Note: The savings that will now be made by this bill are £150bn. The £350bn shortfall will have to be raised somehow. Many are saying that it will be raised through taxes. But Rachel Reeves is on record as saying she will not increase Tax. Maybe only your general income tax, NI and savings tax, that an average worker is liable for.
I look forward to reading your comments in general.
References
BBC 1 The BBC News at 6.00. On the 24th of June 2024
BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk-news-articles
The Independent https://www.Independent.co.uk-news-uk-politics-keir-starmer-welfare
The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk
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